Daily Energy Market Updates

Morning Update

The December '26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.08 at $3.37.  The December '26 crude oil contract is up $0.91 at $86.95. 

Summary

·  A potential nor'easter this weekend is likely contributing to prompt-month volatility, with rain along the coast and snow possible inland and at higher elevations.

·  Res/com demand is up 1.0 Bcf/d today, but power burn is down nearly 2.0 Bcf/d.  Month-to-date total demand is 4.2 Bcf/d below last year amid a lack of sustained cold and a broader warm outlook.

·  The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report a 60 Bcf injection tomorrow, 20 Bcf above the 5-year average and 16 Bcf larger than last year, reflecting the mild demand backdrop.

·  The Dec '26 natural gas contract rose eight cents yesterday and is up 40 cents over the past week.  The 12-month strip and Cal '27 are also up roughly 10 cents week-over-week, showing strength extending beyond the prompt month.

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Morning Update

The December ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $3.23. The December ’26 crude oil contract is down $2.54 at $84.31.

Summary

• Natural gas supply has begun to pick back up after maintenance in Texas dropped levels down to the 108 Bcf/d level last week.  Levels have returned to 112 Bcf/d.

 

• Total natural gas demand has been average to start the month, something that we haven’t seen all year, brought on by mild temperatures during an otherwise chilly month mixed with an outage at Freeport that dropped LNG export demand.

 

• LNG export feedgas has returned to 21 Bcf/d as freeport has recovered, and we continue to see strong numbers coming out of Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III.

 

• The blue shift in Congress last week brings the potential for changes to the energy landscape as Democrats could attempt to reverse actions made by their Republican counterparts.  However, the president still holds the “Trump Card” of a veto, which could prove to be a major hurdle for them in passing any new legislation.

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Morning Update

The December '26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.14 at $3.14.  The december '26 crude oil contract is down $3.58 at $87.25.

Summary

·  Total demand for natural gas has averaged 112 Bcf/d over the past week, with much of the recent increase driven by higher residential/commercial demand.

·  Power burn reached a high of 34.5 Bcf/d last week before falling to 31.2 Bcf/d today, representing a decline of over 3.0 Bcf/d.

·  Meanwhile, LNG feedgas has remained stable, averaging approximately 21.5 Bcf/d over the past week.

·  The partial outage at the Freeport LNG facility has been lifted, with demand levels climbing back over 2.0 Bcf/d.

·  Dry production also recovered following maintenance in the Appalachia region, averaging 111.8 Bcf/d over the past seven days.

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Morning Update

The December ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.05 at $3.00. The December ’26 crude oil contract is up $0.29 at $90.81.

Summary

·   U.S. natural gas demand increased 3.7 Bcf/d day-over-day to 113.9 Bcf/d, driven primarily by a 3.2 Bcf/d increase in res/com demand to 20.8 Bcf/d.

·   Power burn moved lower by 1.3 Bcf/d to 33.0 Bcf/d, partially offsetting the increase in heating demand.

·   Feedgas for LNG exports increased 0.7 Bcf/d to 21.5 Bcf/d, equal to the all-time peak of 21.5 Bcf/d.

·   Dry gas production remained relatively flat, slipping 0.1 Bcf/d to 110.9 Bcf/d, while higher Canadian imports pushed total supply up 0.2 Bcf/d to 116.6 Bcf/d.

·   The EIA reported a slightly lower-than-expected injection of 77 Bcf into storage for the week ended Oct. 30, bringing inventories to 3,801 Bcf.

·   Above-normal temperatures remain prevalent across much of the country into November, keeping the weather outlook relatively bearish despite a near-term increase in heating demand.

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Morning Update

The December ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.00 at $2.96. The December ’26 crude oil contract is up $1.58 at $89.70.

Summary

·   Prompt month natural gas settled at $2.959/MMBtu yesterday, up $0.06 on the day and $0.14 on the week, while the 12-month strip held flat week-over-week at $2.864.

·   Dry production rose 1.2 Bcf/d on the day to 111.5 Bcf/d but is still 1.9 Bcf/d lower than last week.

·   Total demand jumped 2.3 Bcf/d on the day to 109.4 Bcf/d, mostly from a 1.9 Bcf/d increase in res/com demand.

·   That more than offset a 0.9 Bcf/d drop in power burn, which is now down 2.1 Bcf/d week-over-week.

·   LNG feedgas firmed up 0.4 Bcf/d to 20.8 Bcf/d, above its month-to-date average of 20.0 Bcf/d, and the market remains about 1.5 Bcf/d short of its all-time high.

·   The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly storage report today, where market consensus expects a 79 Bcf injection.

Daily Market Update 11.05.26.pdf

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Morning Update

The December '26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.90.  The December '26 crude oil contract is down $2.70 at $93.39.

Summary

·  U.S. natural gas fundamentals remain relatively loose as declining production is being offset by softer power-sector demand and reduced LNG feedgas associated with ongoing Freeport LNG maintenance.

·  Dry gas production is forecasted at 108.2 Bcf/d today, down 0.4 Bcf/d day-over-day and roughly 2.4 Bcf/d week-over-week, while total U.S. demand remains nearly flat at 78.6 Bcf/d.

·  Power burn is expected to fall 1.2 Bcf/d to 31.8 Bcf/d, partially offset by a 1.2 Bcf/d increase in residential and commercial demand.

·  LNG feedgas is projected to recover modestly to 20.2 Bcf/d, but Freeport LNG remains constrained after taking Train 2 offline Nov. 1 for compressor-related maintenance following the Oct. 26 power outage that disrupted all three trains.

·  Freeport feedgas deliveries have remained well below the facility's roughly 2.4 Bcf/d pre-outage level, limiting LNG demand despite the broader recovery in export feedgas.

·  Overall, total demand is forecast to rise just 0.4 Bcf/d to 105.4 Bcf/d, while the daily supply-demand balance remains loose, maintaining a generally bearish near-term fundamental backdrop for natural gas prices.

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