Daily Energy Market Updates

Morning update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.04 at $2.98. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is up $1.09 at $91.51.

Summary

Henry Hub's November contract gained about a penny during Wednesday's session, closing at $3.026/MMBtu, while the calendar strips saw very little movement on the day. The current weather outlook shows the East easing toward near-normal temperatures after this weekend, while above-normal heat builds across the West and Northern Plains into mid-October. Gas production dipped 0.7 Bcf/d on the day to 109.5 Bcf/d but remains about 1 Bcf/d above last week's low, while power burn fell 1.6 Bcf/d as temperatures moderated, residential and commercial demand rose 0.8 Bcf/d to 10.9 Bcf/d, and LNG export feedgas edged up 0.2 Bcf/d to 19.2 Bcf/d. Today's EIA storage report for the week ending September 25 is expected to show a 62 Bcf injection, which is well below the five-year average build of 80 Bcf and would point to a tighter weekly balance, narrowing the surplus to the five-year average to 77 Bcf from 95 Bcf. Oil is moving higher this morning, with December Brent up $2.05 to $100.08/bbl and November WTI up $1.27 to $91.69/bbl, and TTF and JKM are also firmer, while President Trump's weekend rejection of Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and continued Iranian warnings to shipping keep a risk premium in the market.

 

Market Update 10-01-26

Market Settles 09-30-26

Morning update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.01 at $3.00. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is up $1.02 at $90.40.

Summary

Yesterday, the Nov ’26 natural gas contract fell nine cents, the 12-month strip eased eight cents, Cal ’27 declined seven cents, Cal ’28 slipped four cents, and Cal ’29 lost a penny. While prompt month pricing continues to be volatile, the more notable trend remains the continued weakness in Cal ’27, which has steadily moved lower as the market weighs expectations for ample supply and a well-supplied market into next year. In contrast, Cals ’28 and ’29 have shown greater resilience, suggesting longer-term value remains better supported despite ongoing softness across the front of the curve. Natural gas production is expected to hold relatively steady near 111 Bcf/d through early October, while LNG feedgas demand remains stable around 19 Bcf/d. Total demand is forecast to increase from roughly 103 Bcf/d over this past weekend to more than 107 Bcf/d later this week, driven primarily by stronger power sector demand, which is expected to increase from the mid 30s to around 40 Bcf/d as warmer temperatures persist across key consuming regions. NOAA’s 6-to-10-day outlook favors above normal temperatures across much of the West, while cooler-than-normal conditions are expected across portions of the Northeast, and the 8-to-14-day outlook maintains a similar pattern that could temper early season heating demand.

Market Update - 09.30.26

Market Settles - 09.29.26

Morning update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.04 at $3.06. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is down $2.00 at $90.60.

Summary

Total natural gas production remains elevated, averaging approximately 114 Bcf/d, while total demand has fallen below 110 Bcf/d as temperatures moderate heading into autumn. The eastern half of the country is expected to return to near-normal temperatures as October begins, while the West remains well above average through the second week of the month. After an extended period of above-normal heat across the Southeast, the shift toward more seasonal conditions should provide some much needed relief to regional demand. Feedgas for LNG exports has returned to pre-maintenance levels, recently reaching highs above 19.6 Bcf/d. With much of the maintenance season now behind the market, export facilities are positioned to prepare for stronger overseas winter demand. European natural gas storage has only recently reached 70% capacity, compared with more than 80% at this time last year. Continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz add another layer of uncertainty as Europe prepares for winter. With storage inventories lagging year-ago levels and prices already elevated, a colder-than-normal winter could contribute to significant price volatility in the European market.

Market Update 09-29-26

Market Settles 09-29-26

Morning update

The October ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.12 at $3.08. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is up $1.79 at $94.20.

Summary

Last week, Henry Hub futures prices saw upward movement across the board, with near-term strips moving more than longer-term strips. The largest move from last week was the prompt month, which rose $0.28 to $3.20/MMBtu. The 12-month strip increased $0.07 to $3.17/MMBtu. Calendar strips 2027-2031 all rose by a penny or two. Over the weekend, natural gas production rose to 109 Bcf/d, while total demand fell by more than 3.0 Bcf/d amid mixed sector-level trends. Lower power burn drove the decline, falling 3.4 Bcf/d, while residential and commercial heating demand decreased 0.5 Bcf/d. In contrast, LNG feedgas demand increased 0.8 Bcf/d. The weather this week is projected to be warmer than normal for the entire nation, but, by the weekend, the West Coast is projected to continue seeing warmer-than-normal temperatures, while everything east of the Rocky Mountains is projected to be at normal temperatures..

Market Update - 09.28.26

Market Settles - 09.25.26

Morning update

The October ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.11 at $3.19. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is down $2.14 at $92.46.

Summary

NYMEX natural gas futures rallied big time yesterday following the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report, which showed a 53 Bcf injection, matching market expectations but coming in well below both the 5-year average build of 76 Bcf and last year’s 77 Bcf injection. Storage now stands at 3,351 Bcf, just 95 Bcf above the 5-year average and 146 Bcf below year-ago levels, marking the smallest surplus to the 5-year average since April. Fundamentals remain supportive despite softer near-term demand. Dry gas production fell 1.3 Bcf/d day-over-day to 107.6 Bcf/d, driven by declines in Appalachia and Texas, while total supply dropped to 112.7 Bcf/d. Weather-driven demand is expected to soften through the weekend as power burn falls further into the mid-30s Bcf/d range. Even so, forecasts trend warmer into early October compared to previous outlooks, while production continues to slide and storage injections remain below historical norms. 

Market Update 09.25.26

Market Settles 09.24.26

Morning update

The October ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.02 at $3.00. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is up $1.42 at $93.58.

Summary

Natural gas futures continued to trend higher yesterday, with the prompt month settling at $3.023/MMBtu, up $0.06 on the day and $0.13 week-over-week. Strength was concentrated in the front of the curve, while longer-dated calendar strips were generally steady to modestly higher. Fundamentals tightened as demand outpaced supply gains. Total demand increased 3.1 Bcf/d day-over-day to 113.3 Bcf/d, driven by stronger power burn and industrial demand. Supply also improved, with dry gas production rising 1.6 Bcf/d to 111.5 Bcf/d, but the market balance remained relatively tight near -2.1 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas demand remained robust at 19.2 Bcf/d, while exports to Mexico increased to 8.4 Bcf/d. Weather forecasts continue to support demand, with above-normal temperatures expected across Texas and much of the West through early October, while warmth expands into northern regions during the 6-10 day period. Market participants will also be watching today's EIA storage report, where expectations are centered around a 53 Bcf injection. A build near consensus would reinforce the theme of a relatively tight supply-demand balance as the market approaches the winter heating season.

Market Update 09-24-26

Market Settles 09-23-26