Daily Energy Market Updates

Morning Update

November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.006 at $2.785. The December ’26 crude oil contract is up $2.19 at $99.33.

Summary

Natural gas prices moved lower day-over-day, with the largest weakness concentrated at the front of the curve. The prompt month fell $0.17 to $2.79/MMBtu, while the 12-month strip declined $0.07, and Cal '27 eased a nickel. Changes further out the curve were limited to roughly a penny or less. Natural gas fundamentals were slightly softer, with dry gas production down 0.4 Bcf/d to 111.4 Bcf/d and total demand down 0.5 Bcf/d to 106.9 Bcf/d, driven primarily by a 2.0 Bcf/d decline in power burn. LNG feedgas increased 0.3 Bcf/d to 21.0 Bcf/d, providing some offset. Weather forecasts remain broadly warm through the next 20 days, with notable warmth across the central and eastern U.S., limiting the near-term outlook for heating demand. The EIA is also scheduled to release its weekly storage report today, with consensus estimates calling for a 77 Bcf injection. If realized, the build would remain below the 5-year average injection of 87 Bcf.

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Morning Update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.10 at $2.86.  The December ’26 crude oil contract is down $0.02 at $97.80.

Summary

Natural gas fundamentals remain relatively balanced as total demand is projected to rise 0.8 Bcf/d to 105.5 Bcf/d today, though levels remain 2.7 Bcf/d below last week. U.S. demand declined 0.9 Bcf/d to 77.5 Bcf/d, led by a 1.2 Bcf/d drop in power burn to 31.1 Bcf/d, while res/com demand increased 0.5 Bcf/d to 16.6 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas provided the primary bullish offset, rebounding 1.4 Bcf/d to 21.2 Bcf/d and sitting 0.8 Bcf/d above last week. However, one of Freeport LNG’s three liquefaction trains went offline Oct. 20 in an apparent power-related outage, with Gulf South Pipeline subsequently anticipating reduced deliveries to the facility, creating some near-term downside risk to feedgas demand if the outage persists. On the supply side, dry gas production slipped 0.4 Bcf/d to 110.6 Bcf/d, bringing total supply down 0.3 Bcf/d to 115.1 Bcf/d, although production remains 1.1 Bcf/d above last week. Despite seasonally softer domestic consumption, strong LNG demand and lower day-over-day production are helping tighten balances, providing underlying support to near-term pricing as the market transitions toward stronger winter demand.

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Morning Update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.07 at $2.98.  The November ’26 crude oil contract is up $1.14 at $104.80.

Summary

Yesterday, NYMEX natural gas prices saw minimal changes across the board. The prompt month is down just six cents day-over-day, settling at $3.058/MMBtu.  The 12-month strip and outer years remained flat, with no sudden movements at all yesterday. Lower-48 natural gas fundamentals are projected to be softer this morning.  Dry gas production decreased by 1.6 Bcf/d to 109.9 Bcf/d, contributing to a 1.9 Bcf/d decline in total supply to 114.4 Bcf/d. Total natural gas demand fell by 3.3 Bcf/d to 103.8 Bcf/d. Most of the demand decrease came from residential/commercial demand, which declined by 1.8 Bcf/d, while power burn demand fell by 1.1 Bcf/d, and industrial demand decreased slightly by 0.1 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas is projected to be 22.1 Bcf/d today.  If it reaches this level, it would be a new all-time high.

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nymex

Morning Update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.01 at $3.11.  The November ’26 crude oil contract is down $0.91 at $100.50.

Summary

The natural gas prompt month finished the week down 10 cents, settling at $3.12 on Friday. Cal ‘27 lost $0.08 week-over-week, closing at $3.13, Cal ‘28 was down just two cents to $3.67, while the outer calendar strips were flat or showing just a penny gain. Supply fundamentals remain strong as dry natural gas production continues to hold around 111 Bcf/d. Month-to-date supply is averaging nearly 4.1 Bcf/d above last year, while total demand is 5.8 Bcf/d above last year's month-to-date levels despite easing over the past several days. LNG feedgas remains a key source of demand, holding above 21 Bcf/d since Friday and averaging about 2.0 Bcf/d higher than last year month-to-date. Mild autumn weather remains the primary theme for much of the Central U.S. and Midwest over the next five days, with above-normal temperatures expected. But conditions are normal-to-cooler toward the East Coast, where a developing offshore system is also being monitored, although the current forecast keeps the low pressure offshore.

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Morning Update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.15 at $3.08.  The November ‘26 crude oil contract is down $0.42 at $97.55.

Summary

Natural gas prices moved higher after a bullish storage report was released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with the November prompt trading around $3.28/MMBtu. The EIA reported a 67 Bcf injection, well below market expectations of 75 Bcf, last year’s 80 Bcf build, and the 90 Bcf 5-year average, narrowing the storage surplus to just 1.3% above the 5-year average, while inventories remain 3.9% below last year. Near-term fundamentals also look supportive, with colder weather starting to bring heating demand into the mix and Golden Pass continuing to ramp up LNG demand. Looking further into winter, a strong El Niño remains a potential downside risk if it leads to warmer conditions and softer heating demand. 

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nymex

Morning Update

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.10 at $3.30.  The November ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.3 at $95.39. 

 

Summary

There were minimal changes across the board in natural gas futures prices yesterday, with the November NYMEX contract moving the most with a loss of $0.09 and settling at $3.20/MMBtu. Dry natural gas production climbed as high as 110.2 Bcf/d on Tuesday after recovering from offshore curtailments over the weekend due to Hurricane Isaias, but has slipped a bit to 108.2 Bcf/d today. Countering this loss of supply, power burn demand fell 4.7 Bcf/d from yesterday, with total demand for natural gas down 2.2 Bcf/d day-over-day. Oil and global gas prices continue to strengthen as the war on Iran intensifies, with Houthi forces in Yemen attacking Saudi Aramco’s headquarters. WTI crude oil prices were firmly above $95/bbl yesterday, while Asian LNG prices surged to $29.30/MMBtu, their highest level since mid-September, over increased concerns over Persian Gulf energy flows. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to release their weekly storage report this morning, with market analysts estimating an increase between 74 and 79 Bcf for the week ending October 9. This would come in just under the 80 Bcf increase for the same week last year and less than the 90 Bcf 5-year average injection.  

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